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Energy Statistical Analysis Seminar and Workshop

Presented in partnership with PGS_Logo

This course adds a third day to the popular Energy Statistical Analysis seminar to allow the time needed for a more in-depth discussion and explanation of many important topics. Additionally, this three-day course is designed as a hand-on workshop. Not only will you learn about practical energy statistical techniques and tools, but you will practice building statistical models in a workshop format. 

Learn why companies continue to be exposed to significant energy and electricity related price risk, and how risk and value are properly quantified. Energy and electricity companies worldwide depend on accurate information about the risks and opportunities facing day to day decisions. Statistical analysis is frequently misapplied and many companies find that "a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing." 

This comprehensive three-day program is designed to provide a solid understanding of key statistical and analytic tools used in the energy and electric power markets. Through a combination of lecture and hands-on exercises that you will complete using your own laptop, participants will learn and practice key energy applications of statistical modeling. Be armed with the tools and methods needed to properly analyze and measure data to reduce risk and increase earnings for your organization.  

What you will learn:

  • Correlation & regression analysis; real option analysis; the Black-Scholes option pricing model; binomial trees; GARCH Models; the measurement of energy price risk; and how to use correlation and regression analysis for maintaining a competitive edge.
  • Workshop exercises will have you building forecast models including time series and financial engineering price models including Geometric Brownian Motion and Mean Reversion Jump Diffusion.
  • How to minimize price risk through operational design flexibility; measure forward price volatility and adapt Value-at-Risk concepts (VaR) for the Energy Industry.
  • Workshop exercises will have you building VaR models, calculating volatility and simulating complex energy projects.
  • Use actual case studies to examine 1) how Monte Carlo simulation is used to value renewable energy, demand response programs and energy storage projects; 2) bench-marking techniques used for estimating the incremental cost savings of expanding existing operations; and 3) real-option value of generation assets and power purchase agreements.
  • Actual workshop problems and case studies will look at statistical applications and tools most frequently used in the energy industry.
  • Learn the four manage statistical metrics.

Instructor

Kenneth Skinner, PhD

Vice President, Risk & Evaluation Products
Integral Analytics, Inc.

Dr. Skinner has over 20 years’ experience in evaluation and risk measurement, having worked as an energy consultant with PHB Hagler Bailly and Financial Times (FT) Energy, and as the Derivative Structuring Manager for the retail energy supplier Sempra Energy Solutions. He earned his PhD from Colorado School of Mines, in Mineral Economics, with an emphasis in Operations Research, plus an MBA from Regis University and a BS in Engineering from Letourneau University. 

Dr. Skinner is a nationally recognized expert in economic evaluation and modeling of energy assets including energy storage, distribution and generation, efficiency and demand response, renewable energy alternatives, financial derivatives and structured contracts using net present value, econometric and statistical methods, optimization principles, and real option valuation techniques. Dr. Skinner is widely published and currently the technology columnist for Wiley Natural Gas and Electricity Journal. He is a noted speaker on energy related topics for organizations such as AESP, IAEE, ACEEE, PLMA, IEPEC, INFORMS, Infocast, EUCI, SNL Energy and PGS Energy Training. 

Notable risk management assignments include: developing the value at risk (VaR) reporting system for a natural gas trading company, assessing risk models for an international electric supplier,  advising an electric utility on risk adjusted reporting metrics, building the natural gas storage valuation model and mark-to-market reporting for a national gas company, assessing term risk for structured retail gas and electricity contracts, pricing risk associated with complex generation fuel supply and tolling contracts, and author of a national retail energy supplier’s structured pricing model.

Energy Statistical Analysis Seminar and Workshop Agenda

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Downloads & FAQs

What is the dress code? 

Business casual.

Do I need to bring a laptop? 

Yes, due to the exercises you will complete during the workshop sessions, a laptop computer is required.

What is your cancellation policy?

Cancellations for this program are eligible for a full refund, less a $150.00 administrative fee, if received at least 15 business days prior to the start of the program. Cancellations received after that date but at least 5 business days prior to the start of the program receive a credit in the amount of the registration fee, less a $150.00 administrative fee, to attend another Knowledge Center program within 13 months. Cancellations received fewer than 5 business days prior to the start of the program are not eligible for a refund or credit. 

Attendee substitutions from the same company may be made at any time.

In the event of a cancellation from a group discount, refunds or credits are issued beginning with the most heavily discounted price, minus a $150.00 administration fee.

"No shows" - or those who cancel within 15 days of the program - and have registered under the Invoice option, remain liable for the full program fee.

The Knowledge Center reserves the right to cancel/change programs, content, speakers or venue at any time. The Knowledge Center reserves the right to make portions of the program registration information available to program sponsors. The Knowledge Center will not be held liable for any costs incurred by registrant due to individual registration cancellation. In the event that a seminar is cancelled due to inclement weather, faculty cancellation or force majeure, the Knowledge Center will refund the registrant's tuition in full, however the Knowledge Center will not be liable for incidental or consequential out of pocket expenses incurred by the registrant. If you have questions regarding the Knowledge Center's refund, complaint or program cancellation policy, please call us at (434) 951-7786.

Registrant, as an individual person attending a Knowledge Center conference, seminar, or other program, hereby grants permission to the Knowledge Center to use and publish his or her image, likeness, or testimonials collected in connection with the program for advertising and trade purposes in connection with the Knowledge Center’s conferences, instructional, and/or marketing activities.

Continuing Education Credits

18 CPE Credits
National Association of State Boards of Accountancy This live group seminar is eligible for 18 CPE credits. Be aware that state boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. PGS Energy Training is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be addressed to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors, 150 Fourth Avenue North, Suite 700, Nashville, TN, 37219-2417. Web site: www.nasba.org.
18 CPE Credits
PGS Energy Training has determined that this program qualifies for 18 credit hours. If you are a GARP CPE participant, please record this activity in your Credit Tracker at www.garp.org/cpe. Please inform PGS Energy Training that you are a GARP CPE participant upon seminar registration. The Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) is a not-for-profit membership association dedicated to preparing professionals and organizations for making better-informed risk decisions. GARP's membership represents more than 150,000 risk management practitioners and researchers at academic institutions, banks, corporations, government agencies, and investment management firms in 195 countries and territories. GARP administers the Financial Risk Manager (FRM) and Energy Risk Professional (ERP) Exams - certifications recognized by risk professionals worldwide. Visit www.garp.org/cpe.